FYI No. 160, November 18, 1994

In response to a request by the House science committee, the
Congressional Research Service (CRS) analyzed 30 federally-funded
scientific mega-projects begun within the past 15 years.  The
40-page report, entitled "Big Science and Technology Projects:
Analysis of 30 Selected U.S. Government Projects," and released on
August 24, examines 16 DOE, 11 NASA, and 3 NSF projects, some
on-going, some completed, and some cancelled.  It looks at their
cost and schedule histories, their record of authorizations (if
any) and appropriations, and provides a brief summary of their
current status and support.  

The projects ending in termination all experienced significant
increases in their estimated cost.  CRS notes that many (although
not all) of the cost and schedule overruns were caused by
congressional appropriations of less than the full funding needed
to keep the program on track.  The report finds that "of those
projects selected, significant cost increases are associated more
frequently with the terminated projects than with the on-going
projects.  Of the terminated projects, cost increases ranged from
a low of about 1.5 times the originally estimated cost to highs of
5.2 times and 8 times.  Of the on-going projects, on the other
hand, estimated cost increases thus far range from none in several
cases to a high of 3.4 times."

The report concludes that "significant technical, cost, political,
foreign policy, and other events following an initial authorization
and/or appropriation may overshadow initial congressional support." 
It recommends that Congress consider requiring "authorizing
legislation for big science and technology projects...  However,"
it warns, "it would seem inevitable that some big science and
technology projects, even with initial congressional and
administrative support, will succumb to unforeseen problems and
events."

Below is the CRS summary of LIGO.  In parentheses are the expected
date of completion, the initial estimated cost, and the current
estimated cost.  Summaries of selected DOE and NASA projects will
be provided in FYIs #161 and #162.

LASER INTERFEROMETER GRAVITATIONAL WAVE OBSERVATORY (FY1999; $340
m federal share; $356 m federal share):  "There has been debate in
Congress and the scientific community from the beginning concerning
the cost of the project....  There has been added congressional
concern in that LIGO lacks international collaboration or
participation.  More central to the debate is the criticism of its
having been scaled up from one 40-meter prototype in February 1992
to the current design of two 4-kilometer facilities.  Many in the
scientific community contend that the more prudent approach would
be to pursue aggressive technology development, beginning with the
construction of a 200-meter telescope.  In its current design,
there are questions as to whether or not the objectives of the
project are achievable.  LIGO is considered to be a high risk
experiment, even by many in the physics community."

The report can be obtained through the offices of your Members of
Congress.  The Capitol Switchboard number is 202-224-3121.


###############
Public Information Division
American Institute of Physics
Contact:  Audrey T. Leath
fyi@aip.org
(301)209-3094
##END##########


THE FOLLOWING RELEASE WAS RECEIVED FROM THE NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION
AND IS FORWARDED FOR YOUR INFORMATION.  Steve Maran, American Astronomical
Society


Lynn Simarski                                 November 18, 1994
(703) 306-1070                                NSF PR 94-75

               NATIONAL SCIENCE BOARD APPROVES NEW
             $365 MILLION TOTAL PRICETAG FOR LIGO
                               
          New budget covers research and development,
               construction and early operations
   The National Science Board (NSB) today approved a revised
funding plan of $365.4 million for the Laser Interferometer
Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) that will cover the costs
of construction, related research and development, and the
first years of operating the observatory.  The Board is the
policymaking body of the National Science Foundation (NSF).
     LIGO, a joint effort by scientists at the California
Institute of Technology and the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, will explore the fundamental nature of gravity.
Its detectors will "see" gravitational waves emitted by some of
the most energetic and cataclysmic events in the universe--such
as collisions between black holes and neutron stars--which
cannot be observed any other way.  Present knowledge of the
universe is based on electromagnetic waves, which propagate
through spacetime.  Gravitational waves, by contrast, oscillate
the very fabric of space-time.  These waves can bring images of
the "dark side" of the universe--pictures of objects that emit
no electromagnetic waves at all.

     LIGO will consist of detectors at two sites operating in
unison: Hanford Reservation, Washington, and Livingston Parish,
Louisiana.  Each L-shaped installation will beam laser light
down 4-kilometer-long, evacuated tubes.  Changes in the length
of the light's path caused by gravitational waves should
register in the detectors.

   "LIGO offers the potential to open a radically new window
onto  the universe," said NSF director Neal Lane.  "The project
is a scientific challenge that promises to open an entirely new
frontier of research."

     The NSB's recommendation, which came after a rigorous
review and restructuring of the project, covers a two-part
increase: $84.7 million for construction and associated
research and development (R&D) (to be awarded over fiscal years
1995 to 1998), and $68.7 million for commissioning and the
first years of operation, running from fiscal years 1997
through 2001.  Both LIGO sites will be operating in an
integrated fashion by then. (Funds for LIGO's initial operation
were not included as part of the original NSB action in 1990,
which awarded $212 million for LIGO construction, research and
development over four years.)

     In more detail, the new estimate for construction and
associated R&D includes the $212 million previously approved,
as well as the $84.7 million increase, broken down as follows:
$36.6 million, the additional cost of "stretching out"
construction from four to seven years; $16 million for
increasing the size of the project's staff (in keeping with
recommendations from external reviews); $23.1 million for an
increase in the base cost; and $9 million for an increase in
contingency funds to cover unexpected costs.

     NSF has worked closely with Caltech over the past year to
ensure proper management as the project moved from the
development phase to construction.  In March, the project team
under its new director, Barry Barish, began to create a new
organizational structure aimed at more specific assignments of
responsibility through appropriate delegation, strengthening
the project's system of checks and balances, and increasing
accountability.

     During the same period, an eight-member committee of
scientific and engineering experts reviewed the cost, schedule,
and management of LIGO.  Completing its work in October, the
committee concluded that LIGO can be constructed for an
additional $84.7 million, and also that the project now has a
strong management team.  The team has already met every project
milestone thus far, demonstrating its accountability to a
detailed schedule.  In addition, a new user program will
facilitate interaction with a growing number of researchers
outside the immediate LIGO team.

                             -end-

fcm:  If you want a translation to the above pompous officialese, here are
excerpts from Nature, 24 November 1994, p. 311

"The increase in planned costa and timescales are being blamed on
'management failures' resulting from the previous running of the project, 
compounded by Congress holding up funds as a result.  Robbie Vogt, a physicist at
Caltech and LIGO's founding-father, was replaced by Barry Barish, a high-energy
physicist with experience in managing large parts of the now-defunct
Superconducting Super Collider."

and

"When distant cosmic explosions shake the weights by as little as $10^{-16} [cm]
-- one-hundred millionth of the diameter of a hydrogen atom --- interference
between the lasers will reveal the movement, scientists say."


Is there some problem with multiplying and dividing?  A better scale reference
would be to the wavelength of visible light: we are talking $10^{-10}$ of
a wavelength!!!  "Scientists" can "say" anything they want.  I want to know
how you can see a shift in the laser light phase of $10^{-10}$?
(I know the beam is to be bounced like $10^3$ times, but that leaves a
precision of $10^7$ left to be achieved; that's what a good telescope can do.)